If you haven’t heard about Mississippi’s approaching “enrollment cliff,” get ready. It’s certain to bring big changes to the operations of schools at all levels.
The Mississippi Today website recently published a story in which legislators met with education officials to discuss how the state’s universities will be affected by the decline of high school graduates in the state, which is expected to begin in 2027. But it also makes sense that community colleges and grades K-12 will be impacted by this trend, depending on the size of the decline and how many years it lasts.
Birth rates have been declining across America for a number of years, which by itself guarantees fewer high school graduates. But a Mississippi State professor said the situation will be worsened by people leaving the state, along with deaths from covid-19.
A University of Mississippi official told lawmakers that Mississippi will have the second-largest decline of high school graduates in the South, exceeded only by Virginia. If this proves to be true, it could really pinch the finances of the state’s four smaller public universities: Alcorn State, Delta State, Mississippi University for Women and Mississippi Valley State.
Universities and community colleges in Mississippi already compete for students with institutions in other states. Once schools tumble over the enrollment cliff, that competition is likely to increase. Schools in other states will be facing a similar dilemma and are certain to recruit Mississippi residents.
Mississippi Today pointed out another potential financial problem for universities: They now depend on tuition for the bulk of their revenue. At the legislative hearing, the Institutions for Higher Learning commissioner said tuition accounts for 64% of operating budgets at the eight public universities. Back in 2000, tuition made up only 26% of those budgets, while money from the state provided 60% of their revenue.
Enrollments at some schools already have declined. The risk is obvious: If that trend gets worse in a few years, some universities will lose a lot of tuition money. That will lead to difficult decisions about budgets and the elimination of programs, which can make an institution less appealing to prospective students.
Community colleges and K-12 schools, both public and private, probably are looking at similar challenges. If there are fewer children to educate, that means smaller, leaner schools, most likely with fewer employees. The challenge will be to maintain education quality.
While it’s far too early to know what will happen, the worst-case scenario may include the possibility of closing some higher-education schools, or merging K-12 buildings or districts. The enrollment cliff may prove to be one more example of how a declining or very slowly growing population can affect quality of life.
Jack Ryan, Enterprise-Journal
